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科学家揭示气候变化对水稻单产影响
发表日期: 2015-04-22 作者: 黄季焜等 文章来源:《农业经济学》
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美国American J. of Agricultural EconomicsVolume 97, Issue 2期刊近日发表了中科院地理科学与资源所研究员黄季焜、王金霞等人的研究成果。研究分析了水稻农户应对极端气候事件时在农田管理方面作出的适应性反应以及这些反应的作用。研究所用的数据来源于对全国5个省1653家水稻农户的大规模实地调研。

调研结果表明,农户应对极端气候事件(洪涝和干旱)时,常采用的农田管理措施包括补种、扶苗、定苗或洗苗。与相对正常年相比,在极端气候事件发生较严重的年份,农户采用农田管理措施的概率更高。而这些适应性措施除了与农户及社区的社会经济及自然条件密切相关外,当地政府提供的预警信息及技术支持,对他们的适应性决策行为也起了促进作用。分析表明,农户采取的农田管理方面的适应性措施不仅能提高水稻的单产水平,也能降低单产波动风险。

该研究的政策含义主要有:首先,目前国家适应气候变化的应对策略在主要关注新投资和技术推广应用的同时,也应重视容易被农户采用的农田管理措施;其次,目前仅有1/4的水稻农户可以接收到政府提供的预警信息及技术支持服务,这是决策者应关注的重要议题。(来源:中国科学报 冯丽妃)

 

Farmers' Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events through Farm Management and Its Impacts on the Mean and Risk of Rice Yield in China

 

Abstract  We explore how rice farmers adjust their farm management practices in response to extreme weather events and determine whether their adjustments affect the mean, risk, and downside risk of rice yield. Based on a survey of 1,653 rice farmers in China, our econometric analyses show that the severity of drought and flood in the study areas significantly increases the risk and downside risk of rice yield. The applied farm management measures respond to severe drought and flood and can be considered as adaptation to climate change, an issue often ignored in previous studies. We model adaptation and its impact on rice yield for adapters and non-adapters. Utilizing a moment-based approach, we show that adaptation through farm management measures significantly increases rice yield and reduces the risk and downside risk of rice yield. Several policies, including scaling up the cost-effective farm management adaptation and providing public services related to natural disasters, are recommended to improve adaptive capacity of farmers, particular the poor, in response to extreme events.

 

原文链接:http://ajae.oxfordjournals.org/content/97/2/602.full.pdf+html

 


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